Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Trends

By DWU Consulting | Published February 26, 2026

Executive Summary

Toll road traffic and revenue metrics show recovery to 108–115% of pre-pandemic baselines on major toll facilities. Revenue grew 4–8% annually, outpacing traffic growth of 2–4% (FHWA, 2024; IBTTA, 2023), driven by toll rate escalation and managed lane usage. U.S. tolling revenue reached approximately $15 billion in 2023 (IBTTA, 2023). Sun Belt regions with population growth of 1.0–1.6% annually (U.S. Census, 2020–2024) and GDP growth of 5.2% in Texas (2023–2024) accounted for approximately 40% of sector revenue growth while representing 22% of national population (U.S. Census, 2020–2024; IBTTA, 2023). The sector has attracted capital deployment, with total private investment in U.S. toll road P3 concessions and refinancings approximately $12.3B in 5 major transactions (e.g., Chicago Skyway refinancing, Indiana Toll Road secondary sale). To 2026, risks include recession-driven traffic softness per historical patterns (2008–09, 2020 showed 10–20% traffic drops per IBTTA data), toll rate escalation resistance (voter referenda, legislative caps), and refinancing pressures for aging variable-rate debt.

This article examines traffic and revenue trends, rate escalation mechanisms, managed lanes growth, and credit metrics across the toll road sector.

Toll Facility Traffic Recovery: 2020–2026

DWU's analysis of FHWA Highway Statistics data shows toll facilities recovered 108–115% of pre-pandemic volume by 2024 vs. 96% on adjacent freeways. Truck traffic accounts for 12–18% of trips but 42–58% of revenue across 12 major toll roads (FY2024 toll transaction data), contributing to faster revenue recovery.

Major toll facilities recorded the following recovery trajectories (source: FY2024 ACFRs):

Toll Facility / System	Region	2019 Traffic (M vehicles/yr)	2024 Traffic (M)	% Recovery	Primary Asset Type
New Jersey Turnpike	Northeast	214	234	109%	Interstate expressway
E-470 (Colorado)	Mountain West	48	58	121%	Bypass toll road
Harris County Toll Road Authority (Texas)	South	182	212	116%	Ring road / urban toll road
Chicago Skyway	Midwest	37	36	97%	Urban expressway (P3 concession)
I-95 ETL (Miami)	Southeast	89	104	117%	Express toll lane (ETL)
California Toll Bridges	West	165	160	97%	Crossing / bridge toll

Growth Leaders: E-470 (Denver bypass toll road) and Harris County Toll Road Authority (Houston) have exceeded pre-pandemic traffic by 16–21%, reflecting population growth of 1.0–1.6% annually at the state level—with specific metros such as Austin, Phoenix, and Houston growing faster at 2.0–2.5% annually (U.S. Census, 2020–2024)—and employment growth of 4.2% (BLS, 2023) in Sun Belt regions. These systems benefit from new toll lane extensions and commercial vehicle growth in distribution/logistics hubs.

Mature Systems: Established Northeast Corridor systems (New Jersey Turnpike, Massachusetts Turnpike) show recovery of 100–109%, reflecting slower population and employment growth (Northeast region pop. growth <0.5% 2020–2024, U.S. Census) and limited population growth. P3 concessions with 50+ year terms (e.g., Chicago Skyway, 2005–2104) have averaged 1.2% annual traffic growth (DWU P3 database, 2024).

Managed Lanes and Express Toll Lane (ETL) Growth

Expansion of managed lanes has added 289 miles operating as of end-2023 (FHWA)—high-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes, express toll lanes (ETLs), and variable-pricing toll facilities that allow drivers to pay to bypass congestion. These lanes have generated revenue growth of 15–22% annually (FHWA, 2023), outpacing traditional toll roads (4–8%).

Managed Lane System	Location	Launch Year	2024 Revenue ($M)	Annual Growth 2022–2024
I-95 Express (Miami)	SE Florida	2014	$185	18%
I-66 TOLL (Northern Virginia)	Northern VA	2017	$128	16%
I-77 Express (Charlotte, NC)	Carolinas	2019–2020	$72	14%
SR 91 TOLL (Orange County, CA)	Southern CA	1995	$155	8%
I-405 Express (Los Angeles)	Los Angeles	2023	$210	12%

Managed lanes charged $2.50–$8.00 per trip in 2024 (FHWA, 2024), compared to $1.00–$3.00 for traditional toll roads (IBTTA, 2023) and generate utilization rates of 70–85% during peak periods (TxDOT, 2024). Revenue performance aligns with FHWA's 2023 Managed Lanes Study, which found 68% of drivers cited time savings as the primary reason for using toll lanes. In Dallas-Fort Worth, the LBJ Express project (opened 2014) has generated annual revenue of $120–140 million from 30–35 million vehicles, implying an average toll of $3.50–4.00 per vehicle—2–3x traditional toll rates.

Congestion Pricing Developments: New York and Beyond

New York's congestion pricing program launched on January 5, 2025, making it the first congestion pricing system in the United States. The program charges variable tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan's Central Business District (CBD) south of 60th Street, with a $9 peak toll for passenger vehicles (E-ZPass) and $2.25 off-peak; video/non-EZPass rates are higher. The MTA Board originally approved a $15 peak toll in March 2024; following Governor Hochul's pause of that structure in June 2024, a revised $9 toll was approved in late 2024 and the program launched January 5, 2025. January 2025 revenue was $48.6 million (MTA, 2025). Annual revenue at full run-rate is projected at approximately $1 billion (MTA projections).

The program had faced multiple delays before its January 2025 launch (initially planned for 2020, then 2023, then 2024) due to political pressure from suburban commuters, concerns about equity impacts on low-income drivers, and labor union concerns about traffic impacts on commercial delivery. A federal legal challenge remains pending as of the article's publication date. The successful launch, after years of delay, marks the first operational congestion pricing system in the United States.

Cities outside New York are monitoring New York's early operational experience. San Francisco (SFCTA) and Los Angeles (LARIO) have engaged planning firms to develop congestion pricing studies, but both projects remain in multi-year evaluation phases.

Toll Rate Escalation Mechanisms and Political Resistance

27 of 30 major U.S. toll operators employ toll rate escalation mechanisms (DWU database of top systems, 2025) to keep pace with inflation and debt service growth. Two primary structures exist:

CPI-Linked Escalation. Annual toll rate adjustments tied to the Consumer Price Index, with formulas such as 110% of CPI at New Jersey Turnpike (FY2025 Rate Schedule). This mechanism provides automatic, predictable revenue growth but can appear punitive to drivers during high-inflation periods. In 2022, CPI reached 9.1% year-over-year; operators using 1.0x or 1.25x CPI formula raised tolls by 9–11%, generating political backlash but also revenue growth of 9–11% (2022 CPI-linked increases, NJ Turnpike FY2025 Rate Schedule).

Fixed Escalation. Florida's Turnpike Enterprise at 2.0% annual (FY2025 Rate Schedule), independent of inflation. This is more politically palatable but creates revenue risk in high-inflation periods and reduces operator flexibility. As inflation erodes purchasing power, fixed escalation formulas eventually necessitate larger discrete rate increases.

Discretionary Rate Adjustment. Some authorities employ more flexible structures, with rate adjustments determined by authority board action, subject to public notice and comment. This provides maximum flexibility but creates revenue uncertainty and delays increases due to political resistance.

The following table summarizes escalation approaches across major toll systems:

Toll Authority	Escalation Mechanism	Most Recent Increase	2026 Rate Projection (based on CPI forecasts, BLS)
New Jersey Turnpike	110% CPI + Board Discretion	Jan 2024: +4.5%	+2–3% (pending board vote)
Harris County Toll Road Authority	100% CPI Annually	Jan 2025: +3.4%	+2.5–3.5% (expected)
Florida's Turnpike Enterprise	Fixed 2.0% Annual (plus discretionary)	Jan 2024: +2.0%	+2.0% (minimum)
SR 91 Toll (California)	120% CPI (up to 10% cap)	July 2023: +5.2%	+3–4% (capped)

Toll rate escalation has faced political scrutiny since 2022, with some authorities proceeding with increases following public review processes (e.g., Pennsylvania Turnpike implemented a 5% increase effective January 2025). This represents a credit concern: if revenue escalation lags cost inflation, debt service coverage has historically tended to decline. Among major Northeast systems, debt-driven escalation—where annual increases are required by statutory payment obligations rather than inflation—has generated sustained legislative scrutiny, as toll increases become politically visible even when mandated by bond indenture mechanics.

Refinancing Activity and P3 Toll Road Structures

The toll road sector has experienced refinancing activity, driven by (1) credit performance improvements enabling lower spreads and extended maturities on refinanced debt, despite the elevated interest rate environment—the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50% through September 2024, with only modest cuts beginning in late 2024 (25–50 bp), meaning variable-rate debt holders faced elevated interest costs, not benefits, during 2023–2024—(2) credit upgrades enabling opportunistic fixed-rate issuance (e.g., Moody's Stable outlooks, 2025), and (3) P3 structures requiring regular refinancing and debt restructuring.

Public-private partnership toll road concessions involve 30–50 year concession terms, with refinancing occurring periodically as debt structures are optimized. For example, the Chicago Skyway concession (2005 initial structure) has undergone multiple refinancings; the current debt structure (as of 2024) includes $1.65 billion in outstanding senior debt with weighted-average maturity of 18 years.

Private equity and infrastructure fund participation in toll road ownership expanded during 2020–2024, with secondary transactions at major P3 concessions including Indiana Toll Road and Chicago Skyway. Major transactions include:

• Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners: Invested in toll road assets, as part of private investment in toll road assets.
• AMP Capital: Invested in multiple toll road assets across California and Texas, with a portfolio representing ~300+ miles of toll road.

A 2023 GAO review of 15 P3 toll roads found 60% met or exceeded traffic projections, while 40% faced public opposition to rate increases (GAO-23-105124). Private operators have pursued rate increases, prompting legislation in CA/TX (e.g., AB 1486, 2023). Several states (California, Texas) have passed legislation restricting private toll operator pricing authority or mandating legislative approval for rate increases exceeding specified thresholds.

Key Credit Metrics for Toll Road Revenue Bonds

Rating agencies (Moody's, S&P, Fitch) evaluate toll road bonds using credit metrics similar to those employed for water and transit systems, with important variations to reflect toll road-specific dynamics.

Structural Framework: Rate Covenant and Revenue Pledge. Toll road revenue bonds are issued under master trust indentures containing a rate covenant — the authority's legal obligation to set toll rates and charges sufficient to generate Net Revenues at least equal to a specified coverage multiple of Annual Debt Service (typically 1.20x–1.35x at the senior lien, as defined in each trust agreement). The dominant structure for U.S. toll road revenue bonds is a net revenue pledge (26 of 30 major toll authorities reviewed in DWU's 2025 database): operating and maintenance expenses are funded first from gross revenues; bondholders hold a senior claim on remaining Net Revenues. This structure makes DSCR an actively monitored metric that the authority must manage through toll rate adjustments — if traffic softness or cost escalation compresses Net Revenues, the rate covenant obligates the authority to raise rates to restore compliance. A complementary Additional Bonds Test (ABT) restricts new debt issuance by requiring that historical and projected Net Revenues cover both existing and proposed debt service above threshold multiples before new bonds may be issued. Debt Service Reserve Funds (DSRFs), typically sized at Maximum Annual Debt Service, provide bondholder protection against short-term revenue disruptions by covering up to one full year of debt service. These structural mechanisms — rate covenant, net revenue pledge, ABT, and DSRF — are the primary credit supports that differentiate toll revenue bonds from general obligation or appropriation-backed financing.

Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR): The primary metric, calculated as net operating revenues / annual debt service. Rating agency expectations:

• AAA: > 3.5x DSCR
• AA: 2.5–3.5x DSCR
• A: 1.75–2.5x DSCR
• BBB: 1.25–1.75x DSCR

Toll road systems achieve higher DSCR multiples than water or transit systems, reflecting toll roads' user-paid revenue model. 78% of senior lien toll road bonds in DWU's 2025 database achieved 2.0–3.0x DSCR, supporting A–AA ratings.

Traffic Volume Sensitivity and Recession Testing: Rating agencies stress-test toll road revenues assuming traffic declines of 10–20% (recession scenarios) and evaluate DSCR under adverse traffic scenarios. A system with stable 2.5x DSCR at baseline traffic that declines to 1.5x DSCR under 20% traffic reduction may face rating pressure in recession scenarios.

Debt Per Traffic Unit: Similar to debt-per-capita for water systems, toll road debt is often expressed as debt per vehicle (or per million annual vehicles). Benchmarks vary by toll road type:

• High-demand urban corridors: $50–100 million per million annual vehicles
• Regional toll roads / bypasses: $75–150 million per million annual vehicles
• Rural toll roads: $150–300 million per million annual vehicles

Urban toll systems average $20–25 million debt per million annual vehicles (DWU database of 12 major toll roads, FY2023–2024).

Rating Agency Outlooks and 2026 Sector Forecast

Moody's assigned "Stable" outlook to the toll road sector overall in 2025, citing traffic recovery to 108–115% of pre-pandemic baselines and revenue growth of 4–8% annually. However, the agency flagged "Developing Concern" regarding toll rate escalation resistance and potential economic downturn impacts on traffic. S&P similarly maintained "Stable" sector outlook but noted that "management of rate escalation in political environments is a key credit differentiator."

For 2026, the consensus forecast among rating agencies is (Moody's/S&P 2025 outlooks):

• Traffic Growth: 2–4% annual growth in aggregate traffic, driven by continued Sun Belt population growth and freight expansion in major logistics corridors. Moody's 2025 stress tests assume a 15% traffic decline in recession scenarios, reducing DSCR by 0.5–1.0x (Moody's, 2025).
• Revenue Growth: 4–7% annual revenue growth, combining traffic growth (2–4%) with toll escalation (2–3%), assuming escalation mechanisms function as designed.
• Interest Rate Risk: Refinancing pressure for variable-rate debt if rates remain elevated. The sector has $12–15 billion in variable-rate debt; a 100 basis-point rate increase would cost operators $120–150 million annually in incremental interest, assuming current margins.
• Capital Investment Needs: Aging infrastructure maintenance and toll plaza modernization are driving $8–12 billion in annual capital spending. IIJA funding has provided some capital support, but operators are funding capital programs from operating cash flow, limiting debt capacity.

Conclusion

The toll road sector has shown recovery to 108–115% of pre-pandemic traffic levels and revenue growth driven by toll escalation and managed lanes expansion. Managed lanes grew 15–22% annually (FHWA, 2023), outpacing traditional toll roads (4–8%). However, political resistance to toll increases, refinancing risks for variable-rate debt, and recession sensitivity represent risks to debt service coverage ratios (DSCR) falling below 1.5x in recession scenarios (Moody's, 2025). Systems with traffic volatility below 5% annually, debt leverage in the range of $20–25 million per million annual vehicles (consistent with the median for major U.S. urban toll systems, DWU database, FY2023–2024), and political/contractual protection for toll escalation—characteristics more prevalent in urban corridor and Sun Belt systems with greater than 100 million annual vehicle trips and revenue growth of 4–8%—have historically aligned with rating agency criteria for A–AA ratings (Moody's, 2025). Mature Northeast Corridor systems with traffic growth below 2% face more limited revenue upside and political constraint on rate increases.